If Cameroon gets through the health crisis as best it can, it must face a drop in its revenues, as well as the low morale of its businesses. On this point, the employers’ organization, Gicam, has once again sounded the alarm.
This is not the time for panic in Cameroon, but for adjustments designed to respond to the emergency and facilitate the future. Thus, the 2021 budget seems to be prepared in relative serenity. The Budget Guidance Document projects oil revenues of CFAF 303.3 billion (€462.4 million) in 2021.
This represents an increase of 16.6 billion FCFA (+ 5.8%) compared to the 286.7 billion contained in the corrective finance law 2020. This increase, explains the document, is based on a modest rise in the price. per barrel of oil ($37.9 on average compared to $35.6 this year). This, for an almost stable production, at 21.2 million barrels in 2020.
And faced with the gloom expressed by the employers, the Cameroonian government is not remaining inactive. He has just detailed the use of the Special National Solidarity Fund for the fight against the coronavirus and its economic repercussions.
Rich in the amount of 180 billion F.CFA (274.4 million euros), this fund devotes no less than 50 billion F.CFA to the repayment of domestic debt. Half by clearing arrears and half by clearing VAT credits. The purpose of these two actions is to relieve companies by strengthening their cash flow. For its part, the productive sector is the subject of CFAF 70 billion from the Fund, a sum that will be distributed among the twelve economic ministries of the government.
Concretely, this provides for the acquisition of inputs, the supervision of producers and the implementation of the incentive system for better agricultural, food and pastoral production. It encourages the funding of research and innovation, in particular that relating to essential drugs.
Health is not forgotten!
The Ministry of Finance has linked the allocation of these various sums to precise specifications and an obligation of accountability to its services. The “Minfi” will in turn have to account for its expenses every six months.
For its part, the Ministry of Health receives an endowment of 45.6 billion F.CFA, the largest of all the administrations. It will be used to take care of confirmed cases of Covid-19, for 32 billion CFA francs, to search for new cases (10.6 billion) and for social regulation (2.9 billion).
On the other hand, Cameroon receives a new boost from the AfDB (African Development Bank) which grants it a loan of 57.7 billion CFA francs (88 million euros), under the program of budget support. This was revealed on July 27 by the Minister in charge of the Economy, Alamine Ousmane Mey.
We must therefore respond to urgency and impatience. The Cameroon Inter-Employer Group (Gicam) carried out the investigation. Cameroonian bosses anticipate a drop in turnover for the year as a whole for 81% of companies, or 3,139 billion CFA francs (4.8 billion euros).
Some particularly exposed branches could end the year without any revenue. While on average, small businesses expect an 83% drop in business. According to Gicam calculations, “the loss of 3 139 billion F.CFA for companies in the modern sector leads to a drop in their capacity to contribute to state revenue of around 521 billion F.CFA”.
Loss of assets!
The Groupement notes that the employment situation is deteriorating continuously, despite the adaptation efforts on the part of companies. This inevitably leads to technical unemployment for 42.6% of companies and layoffs for 12.4% of them.
In addition, the employers insist on “loss of assets and a reduced capacity of companies to ensure their social and economic role”. For this, employers fear that the recession predicted by the state in 2020 (between 11% and 3%) “could be much more important”. Forecasts to be refined in the coming weeks.
Reference: https://www.afrik.com/le-coronavirus-fragilise-l-economie-camerounaise
